Population Up or Down by 2026?
New Population Projections for Québec's 103 RCMs

Québec, October 1, 2004 - Today the Institut de la statistique du Québec (ISQ) released its new population projections by regional county municipality (RCM) and equivalent territory (ET), along with the highlights in an analytical paper entitled La croissance démographique des MRC, 2001-2026", which you will find in the bulletin Données sociodémographiques en bref. It is revealed that in 2026, the population of one half of the RCMs, i.e. 52, will be higher than in 2001, but that the population will be on the decline in the other 51 RCMs. Therefore, Québec is increasingly becoming divided into two major sectors, one with an expanding population and the other with a declining population.

If the trend described in the ISQ's reference scenario continues, population growth in the 2001-2026 period will take place mostly in the major metropolitan centres and their outskirts, along their principal roads, and in their tourist zones.

The 19 RCMs in the Laurentides, Outaouais, and Lanaudière regions, and the Laval and Montréal regions will see sustained demographic growth. Growth in most of them will amply surpass Québec whose growth will reach 9% in 25 years. Extreme growth, varying from 25% to close to 45%, is expected in eight of these RCMs: Mirabel, Les Pays-d'en-Haut, La Rivière-du-Nord, Les Laurentides, Thérèse-De Blainville, Les Collines-de-l'Outaouais, Matawinie and Montcalm. In Estrie and Montérégie, the population increase in the RCMs will be more moderate, except in Memphrémagog and Vaudreuil-Soulanges, which are also among the RCMs with the highest population growth rates.

The only other population growth corridor is in the Capitale-Nationale and Chaudière-Appalaches regions, but growth is weaker and fragile. Centred in Québec City and stretching from the Jacques-Cartier RCM in the north to the Beauce-Sartigan RCM in the south, it comprises eight RCMs: six with under 7% growth and two with under 15% growth.

The 36 RCMs of six other administrative regions are all destined to negative growth. Some of them registered an extreme loss varying from -15% to -25 % in 25 years, i.e., La Tuque and Shawinigan in Mauricie; Matane and La Matapédia in the Bas-Saint-Laurent; Abitibi-Ouest in Abitibi-Témiscamingue; Sept-Rivières, Minganie, Caniapiscau, La Haute-Côte-Nord and Manicouagan on the Côte-Nord; and, lastly, Bonaventure, La Haute-Gaspésie, Le Rocher-Percé and La Côte-de-Gaspé in Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine. None of the five Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean RCMs had such a dramatic population decline, but each of them should see its population fall by between 9% and 13%.

Nevertheless, there could be more growth in some of the RCMs destined to become depopulated if upcoming events make it possible to foresee an annulation of migratory losses in the long term. This would be the case of Abitibi-Témiscamingue's five RCMs, five of the Côte-Nord's six RCMs, and four of Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean's five RCMs. This new point of view is taken from another scenario in which migrations stay at zero from 2001 to 2026.

On the ISQ website, you will find detailed results for each of the 103 RCMs based on the reference and migration zero scenarios. You will also find information on population assumptions, the annual components of population growth, population structure by age and sex, and private household projections.

The Institut de la statistique du Québec produces and disseminates relevant, reliable, and timely statistical information on the socioeconomic development of Québec. It is the central authority for the production and dissemination of official statistical information for Québec government departments and bodies. It is also responsible for conducting statistical surveys of general interest.

Sources:

• Esther Létourneau
  Phone: (418) 691-2406, Ext. 3114
   
• Chantal Girard
  Phone: (418) 691-2406, Ext. 3062
   
• Normand Thibault
  Phone: (418) 691-2406, Ext. 3109
   
  Demographers
  Institut de la statistique du Québec
   
• Information and Documentation Centre
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  ou 1-800-463-4090 (toll free in Canada and the United States)